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5-year projections using linear regression on 10-year data
| Department | Annual Growth | R² Fit | FY 30-31 Projected |
|---|---|---|---|
Legislative & Admin | 9.1% | 0.904 | $5.8M |
Theater (CCPA) | 8.5% | 0.297 | $12.8M |
Administrative Services | 7.1% | 0.752 | $19.3M |
Public Works | 5.1% | 0.854 | $52.8M |
Community Safety | 4.4% | 0.846 | $26.1M |
Community Development | 2.7% | 0.384 | $8.9M |
Community & Cultural Services | 2.5% | 0.296 | $15.7M |
Methodology: Linear regression (ordinary least squares) on 10-year historical data from the OpenGov Transparency Portal. FY 2023-24 excluded from regression as an outlier ($152M due to one-time interfund loan forgiveness).
Shaded area shows 95% confidence interval. R² indicates how well the linear model fits the data (1.0 = perfect fit). These are statistical projections, not official city forecasts.